Kaduna 2027
War Room
Sim
160
days to poll
Overview

Where the votes are, and who holds the ground

Days to poll
160
Principal
Not set
from config
Registered voters
4,335,208
2023 register
Polling units
5,102
after 2021 expansion
Wards
255
16 LGAs
Votes cast 2023
1,526,214
governorship
Turnout 2023
35.2%
state-wide
LGAs for half the vote
8
of 16 — 52% cumulative

Allocation gap

Vote share minus ward share, 2023 result
Kaduna Central
81 wards · 557k votes
+4.7pt
Kaduna North
87 wards · 555k votes
+2.3pt
Kaduna South
87 wards · 414k votes
-7.0pt

Kaduna South holds 43% of the wards and casts 27% of the votes. Per-ward resourcing over-serves it by 16 points and starves Ilorin.

Ward control

255 wards
37.6%
Mean control
Held67
Contested95
Exposed93
No structure0
26%
37%
36%
Wards at stake
220
Stalled 14d+
153
Open the pipeline →

Votes cast by LGA

2023 governorship · work down this list
Zaria
7.9% of state · top half
120.8k
Igabi
7.6% of state · top half
115.5k
Kaduna South
7.2% of state · top half
110.6k
Kaduna North
6.8% of state · top half
103.1k
Lere
6.3% of state · top half
95.9k
Chikun
6.0% of state · top half
91.2k
Zangon Kataf
5.5% of state · top half
83.3k
Jema'A
4.6% of state · top half
69.6k
Sabon Gari
4.5% of state
68.6k
Kachia
4.5% of state
68.2k
Soba
4.4% of state
66.4k
Kubau
4.0% of state
61.3k
Giwa
3.9% of state
58.8k
Kauru
3.6% of state
55.1k
Ikara
3.5% of state
53.2k
Makarfi
3.1% of state
47.2k
Kudan
2.7% of state
41.8k
Birnin Gwari
2.7% of state
40.6k
Kagarko
2.6% of state
40.1k
Kaura
2.5% of state
38.9k
Kajuru
2.4% of state
37.0k
Sanga
2.3% of state
34.7k
Jaba
1.6% of state
24.2k

8 of 16 LGAs carry half the votes. Ilorin West alone casts 7.9%.

Turnout by LGA

2023 · darker is higher
Zaria
0.0%
Igabi
0.0%
Kaduna South
0.0%
Kaduna North
0.0%
Lere
0.0%
Chikun
0.0%
Zangon Kataf
0.0%
Jema'A
0.0%
Sabon Gari
0.0%
Kachia
0.0%
Soba
0.0%
Kubau
0.0%
Giwa
0.0%
Kauru
0.0%
Ikara
0.0%
Makarfi
0.0%
Kudan
0.0%
Birnin Gwari
0.0%
Kagarko
0.0%
Kaura
0.0%
Kajuru
0.0%
Sanga
0.0%
Jaba
0.0%

State turnout was 35.2%. Edu at 38.3% against Ifelodun at 22.6% — a 16-point spread that mobilisation, not persuasion, closes.

2023 result

The baseline being defended
48%
48%
APC730,002
PDP719,196
LP58,283
Others6,500
Winning margin
0.7pt
Non-voters 2023
2,808,994
the real opposition
LGAs
23

Source reconciliation

Per-LGA vs declared
APC811,680+81678
PDP638,225-80971
Valid votes1,526,214-1

The per-LGA table does not sum exactly to the declared totals. Shown rather than adjusted. Replace with INEC form EC8D before this drives money.