Power map
Exposure, weighted by where the votes are
2023 votes exposed
555k
36% of the state
2023 votes held
380k
25%
Every ward, sized by weight
Row width = LGA votes cast 2023 · cell width = polling unitsHeld67
Contested95
Exposed93
No structure0
Zaria
121k
Igabi
116k
Kaduna South
111k
Kaduna North
103k
Lere
96k
Chikun
91k
Zangon Kataf
83k
29
Jema'A
70k
Sabon Gari
69k
Kachia
68k
32
Soba
66k
Kubau
61k
30
Giwa
59k
18
Kauru
55k
Ikara
53k
29
26
Makarfi
47k
Kudan
42k
23
Birnin Gwari
41k
Kagarko
40k
19
Kaura
39k
22
21
Kajuru
37k
23
23
22
20
Sanga
35k
Jaba
24k
15
15
Ward vote weight is apportioned from each LGA’s real 2023 result by polling unit share — approximate by construction. Ward-level results would replace it.
Votes at risk by LGA
Exposed and vacant wards onlyJema'A
84% of its 2023 vote
58.7k
Zaria
40% of its 2023 vote
48.8k
Igabi
42% of its 2023 vote
48.8k
Kauru
74% of its 2023 vote
40.8k
Chikun
41% of its 2023 vote
37.8k
Zangon Kataf
43% of its 2023 vote
35.7k
Kaduna North
33% of its 2023 vote
33.9k
Kachia
49% of its 2023 vote
33.1k
The chase list. Ranking by ward count puts small southern LGAs on top; ranking by votes puts them where they belong.
Control by district
Share of wards in each stateKaduna Central81 wards · 36% of the vote
31%
37%
32%
Kaduna North87 wards · 36% of the vote
31%
44%
25%
Kaduna South87 wards · 27% of the vote
17%
31%
52%
Orphan wards
16
no structure, unclaimed
Claimed by pipeline
220
recoverable by reconciling
Orphan wards
16 — exposed or empty, and nobody in the pipeline carries themGangara6.5kJanfala5.9kKafanchan 'B'6.1kJagindi6.4kGidan Waya5.8kAtuku4.2kAsso7.1kTakau 'B'3.9kKagarko South3.6kMakami4.7kKwassam5.0kBital6.2kKauru East4.0kKauran Wali North2.6kZango Urban5.4kGyallesu8.0k
Reconciliation will not recover these — no stakeholder claims them. They need direct appointment, not negotiation.